Supernatural’s Revenues in the United States

The CW no doubt is a struggling network. It’s got some serious problems getting exposure and it caters to an audience, the 18-34 demographic, that doesn’t exactly watch their TV shows live routinely. Their woes though are nothing new though compared to 2009. What has changed is they got a new boss, and he’s trying to think outside the traditional network model box.

The most relevant deals made lately have been with online providers Netflix and Hulu. Both deals will not only bring revenue to the parent companies of CBS and Warner Brothers, but for once The CW itself can get a piece of that share. This will help offset some (or perhaps most) of their annual $50 million in losses and will give them some money to develop new shows so they can start airing programs year round.

The Netflix deal brings in HUGE dollars for veteran CW shows. Both Variety and The Wall Street Journal” gave some concrete numbers on this groundbreaking deal, which potentially will earn up to $1 BILLION for The CW and it’s parent companies over ten years. How come that much? Because Warner Brothers and CBS sold online streaming of their CW catalogs to Netflix exactly like a traditional second run syndication deal. According to Variety, long-running series under the deal will fetch a license fee in the $700,000 range, while the less-proven shows will start out with a fee estimated in the low six figures.

Three shows fall in that $700,000 range, One Tree Hill, Supernatural, and Gossip Girl. That number is PER EPISODE. One Tree Hill (seasons 1-8) has 174 episodes, Supernatural (seasons 1-6) has 126 episodes, and Gossip Girl (seasons 1 – 4) has 87 episodes. Considering this deal extends four years after a show has stopped airing on The CW, this means Netflix will be picking up future seasons when they are available. So being added onto that total next year is One Tree Hill’s final 13 episodes, Supernatural’s 23 episodes, and Gossip Girl’s 24 episodes.

Who has their calculator out yet? Total upfront money for streaming Supernatural seasons 1-6 comes to $88.2 million. Season seven when completed adds another $16.1 million. That’s $104.3 million. The information revealed doesn’t specify if a veteran show’s per episode cost will go up with each new season added (the answer is yes for newer shows), but every new season will definitely add something to the pile.

Remember Supernatural’s budget a year? This deal has more than paid for two seasons already, and will pay for more in the future. This is just one deal.

Things get tricky beyond this. You see, a lot of CW shows aren’t viable for multiple second run syndication. In the US anyway. Internationally, they all get around. Why? The Variety article gives this explanation. CW fare is newly attractive to this new generation of buyers in the SVOD window because its style of serialized drama, with a narrow demographic target that has made its programming a challenging sell to TV stations and cable networks, is much more conducive to the on-demand environment, where episodes are more easily digestible in binge viewing patterns than weekday stripping.” Want that in English? Younger viewers watch CW episodes all at once.

Supernatural may not be a sell for local stations, but it at least is enjoying a run on TNT right now. So did TNT pay $700,000 per episode? Every deal is different and not publicly disclosed, but that is going market price for this show right now. Warner Brothers traditionally hasn’t been known to give too much away, but TNT is an in house network for parent company Time Warner. Seasons 1 – 6 are airing right now twice a day, so it’s probably safe to assume that’s another $88 million in revenue for Supernatural in second run syndication.

Then there’s the deal with Hulu in which the five most current episodes of each CW show will stream on that site. When each episode airs, it will be available on Hulu after eight days for their free service, or one day for those subscribing to Hulu Plus. This deal is good for five years and only applies to current CW shows. Any money that Hulu pays for these episodes (which wasn’t disclosed) will likely be all revenue for The CW, since they control distribution rights for the current seasons in the US. If anything, airing on Hulu will give The CW more exposure, but there is definitely some question as to whether it will encourage more live viewing.

The best thing about the Hulu and Netflix deals is that The CW shows aren’t limited to just those online services. They can be sold anywhere. So as more online outlets come along, expect more deals. Online video on demand (VOD) is the wave of the future. So the experts think anyway.